The 2024 Indian elections are being held across the country in seven stages by the ECI (Election Commission of India). This year’s elections in India are expected to be a historic event as the world watches closely to see whether Modi will remain in power or not. The ongoing tensions regarding the people’s decisions on whether the NDA government is worthy of getting a new term or not.
India is one of the biggest partners of the US in Southeast Asia. So the elections happening there affect American citizens, even in a small way.
Let’s go ahead and learn more about the first stage of the Indian elections that were held yesterday.
Indian Elections: Why Is the Voting Process So Complex?
As Indian citizens head to the polls starting Friday, they are participating in a massive democratic process that will take place over several weeks. The fate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and whether he will win a third term will only be revealed on June 4th, after six weeks of voting.
The reason why the electoral process in India takes such a long time is because India has the largest population in the world. It has a massive 969 million eligible voters that flock to the polling stations on voting day. This number is more than one-tenth of the global population and is four times larger than the number of eligible voters in the United States, which is the next largest democracy.
The detailed explanation for this involves various factors such as the large size of India, election regulations, strict security measures, holiday schedules, and the implementation of EVMs (electronic voting machines). The process leads to a very complex affair when all the things above are required to be taken care of. So the elections in India are very complex and take a lot of time to happen.
What Does the Opinion Poll Tell?
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 365 seats in the upcoming elections, which is a 3.4% improvement from its performance in 2019, when it won 353 seats (with the BJP claiming 303), while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) secured 90 seats. In 2019, the NDA’s tally was five percent higher than in 2014, when it won 336 seats.
On the other hand, the BJP’s main competitor, whether the UPA in 2014 and 2019 or INDIA in 2024, has experienced changes. The UPA’s seat count rose from 60 in 2014 to 90 in 2019, a 50% increase. Similarly, INDIA is projected to see a 35% rise in seats, with an expected 122 seats in the upcoming elections.
The forecasts in the polls showed varying results, with the NDA’s projected seats ranging from 295 to 335 before settling at 373. On the other hand, INDIA’s projection ranged from 163 to 155 seats. Each polling agency had its own predictions. Times-ETG anticipated the highest number of seats for the BJP-led alliance, ranging from 358 to 398 seats, while INDIA was projected to secure 110 to 130 seats.
In contrast, less than 100 seats were predicted for INDIA by India TV-CNX, Zee News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize, with over 350 seats predicted for the NDA.
According to various polls, India Today-C Voter’s forecast seems to be the most accurate. It has predicted the NDA winning 335 seats, INDIA with 166 seats, and 42 seats going to other opposition parties. This prediction was based on a survey of around 36,000 voters conducted on February 8.
Will It Be Very Easy for Modi To Win Indian Elections Again?
With the upcoming elections creating a massive debate over the results, things are different this time. Many are wondering if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP, will secure a decisive win or not. Modi’s popularity and the BJP’s efficient election strategies have fueled talk of a possible landslide victory.
But achieving a 400+ seat dream for Narendra Modi in the Indian elections seems less likely, despite the BJP’s dominance in recent years. While Modi and the BJP have enjoyed considerable support in the Hindi-speaking states of India. The political landscape is seemingly not without challenges and controversies in India. Growing concerns surround undemocratic actions taken against opposition leaders, signaling potential threats to the fairness and transparency of the electoral process.
Recent events, such as the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal, the freezing of Congress bank accounts ahead of the polls, and allegations of an electoral bond scam, have raised eyebrows and ignited debates about the integrity of the electoral system. These incidents highlight an increasing trend of targeting opposition leaders and parties. These things raise concerns about the violation of democratic principles.
Modi and the BJP are strong contenders, but achieving a clean sweep won’t be easy this time. The upcoming elections will test India’s commitment to democracy amidst political divisions and power struggles. As the world watches closely, it will be pretty interesting to see what the actual results will be.
To Summarise
The first phase of the 2024 Indian elections will be completed on April 19. The polling was conducted smoothly across the country, but some violence was observed in the state of Manipur, where suspected Kuki-zo militants opened fire on a polling station. In the rest of the country, some minor tensions took place, with a total voter turnout of 64%.
As the next stages of the Indian elections come closer, it will be interesting to see whether the NDA government will achieve its projected 400+ seat figure or not. It surely won’t be easy for Modi to retain his power for a third term, as a lot of sensitive situations were left unaddressed by him, such as the ongoing Manipur violence.
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FAQs
Why are the Indian elections being held in seven stages?
The Indian elections are conducted in multiple stages due to the country’s large population and geographical diversity, ensuring that every eligible voter gets the opportunity to cast their vote.
How is the voting process in India different from other democracies like the US?
India’s voting process is more complex due to its large population, with 969 million eligible voters as compared to the United States’ approximately 240 million eligible voters.
What do opinion polls tell about the Indian elections?
Opinion polls show various projections, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) expected to win around 365 seats, but achieving the desired 400+ seat majority seems less likely as the common public has faced several hardships.
Are the Indian elections fair and transparent?
Recent incidents, such as the arrest of opposition leaders, the freezing of party bank accounts, and allegations of electoral fraud, have raised concerns about undemocratic actions and the integrity of the electoral system.
Will Narendra Modi secure another term after the Indian elections?
Despite Modi’s popularity and the BJP’s strong electoral strategies, challenges include growing opposition and controversies surrounding undemocratic actions, raising doubts about achieving a landslide victory.
